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September producer prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest jump since 2022 and above forecasts, while consumer prices were up 3.7% annually. Economists say the Fed's work is not finished, with one warning of a possible hike in two weeks, as Fed chief Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF.
Why it matters If inflation stays this sticky, the Fed turns back to tightening, lifting borrowing costs well beyond the US.
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a contraction, as Chancellor John Healey prepares a tough Budget. He plans to raise taxes on banks to pay for cost-of-living support without breaching Labour's campaign pledges.
Why it matters The Budget will set the UK's fiscal path and directly hit bank earnings and lending capacity.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, with both headline and core inflation beating forecasts as fuel costs rebounded amid the Iran war. The Fed's October Beige Book also pointed to firmer prices, and food manufacturers warn grocery bills are set to climb.
Why it matters Inflation running above forecast keeps the Fed on a tightening path and squeezes household budgets before the midterm elections.
Chinese exports rose 36% in September from a year earlier, led by AI-related shipments, while imports climbed by about a third as higher oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict inflated the energy bill. The surplus for the first nine months reached $938bn, keeping China on course to beat last year's record.
Why it matters A near-trillion-dollar surplus keeps trade tensions, currency pressure and rebalancing demands on Beijing squarely in play.
The IMF lifted its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, saying the AI boom is offsetting the drag from war, while warning that energy constraints and fiscal risks are testing economies' resilience. A study of the fund's forecast record shows the world economy repeatedly running hotter than predicted, with inflation worse than expected.
Why it matters The headline upgrade comes with a caveat that the buffers which have absorbed recent shocks are thinning.
At its annual meeting the IMF said major economies are heading for their largest budget deficits since the pandemic and urged urgent action to rebuild public finances. It also said risks in government bond markets have worsened and yields could jump sharply and in a disorderly fashion.
Why it matters Sovereign borrowing plans and fragile bond demand are the two channels through which fiscal risk could turn into a market shock.